France is positioning itself at the heart of the debate over European security as the return of Donald Trump to the White House forces a radical rethink of strategic alliances. According to a Politico analysis, France—the European Union’s only nuclear-armed state with a robust, independent defence industry—is now being called upon to lead a more autonomous European defence strategy.
The Credibility Gap: Paris vs. Washington
Defence experts argue that the trajectory of EU security depends on whether France and Germany can offer a convincing alternative to the American security umbrella.
Professor Guillaume Lagane of Sciences Po suggests that credibility is the deciding factor. If European capitals view French solutions as reliable, they may shift toward autonomy; if not, they will likely double down on bilateral ties with Washington, potentially at the expense of EU and NATO cohesion.
Paris is already exploring bold scenarios to prove its leadership, including:
Rafale Deployment: Stationing nuclear-capable Rafale fighter jets in allied nations like Germany or Poland.
Operational Gaps: Replacing departing US forces with French troops to maintain a permanent European military presence.
A History of Distrust
French scepticism toward US commitments is not a new phenomenon. It dates back to the 1956 Suez Crisis, when Washington forced France and Britain to retreat from Egypt. This event shaped Charles de Gaulle’s strategic doctrine, leading to France’s independent nuclear programme and its temporary withdrawal from NATO’s military structure.
Today, analysts like Elie Tenenbaum of the IFRI Institute suggest that history is vindicating France. With the US questioning NATO’s Article 5 and reducing its footprint in Eastern Europe, the “French position” regarding American involvement is gaining traction across the continent.
Internal Hurdles to Ambition
Despite its grand vision, France faces significant domestic obstacles that threaten its ability to lead:
Political Instability: The unresolved political crisis following the 2024 elections and the rise of the far-right National Rally have unnerved European partners.
The “Trump-Le Pen” Comparison: Diplomats fear that a potential Marine Le Pen victory in 2027 would impact European security as drastically as Trump’s return has impacted the US.
Funding Gap: While President Emmanuel Macron has pledged to increase defence spending to €57.1 billion, France is being outpaced by Germany, which is projected to spend over €82 billion by 2026.
Ultimately, Paris is fighting a dual battle: modernising its armed forces for an unstable geopolitical future while struggling to bridge the gap between its lofty diplomatic rhetoric and its available financial means.
(information from iefimerida.gr)
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