Cyprus has slipped one place to 68th in the 2025 Global Peace Index, whilst its immediate neighbourhood—the Middle East and North Africa—remains the world’s least peaceful region.
The index released on Friday ranks four of Cyprus’s regional neighbours in the bottom 10 globally: Sudan, Yemen, Syria and Israel. Greece stands at 45th position.
The report by the Institute for Economics and Peace recorded 152,000 conflict-related deaths worldwide in 2024, with the world now experiencing 59 active state-based conflicts—the highest number since the Second World War. Global peace has fallen to its lowest level since records began.
Turkey has emerged as one of eight new influential regional powers reshaping the global order, alongside Saudi Arabia, India, the United Arab Emirates, Israel, South Africa, Brazil and Indonesia. The number of globally influential countries has nearly tripled since the Cold War, rising from 13 to 34 by 2023.
Regional fragmentation intensifies
This power shift has fragmented global influence and intensified regional competition. Relations between neighbouring countries have deteriorated substantially over the past decade, with 43 countries seeing relations worsen whilst only 10 improved.
The report warns that key indicators preceding major conflicts are at their worst levels since the Second World War, driven by what researchers call “The Great Fragmentation”—a fundamental reshaping of the global order as middle powers assert themselves.
Syria ranks amongst the areas at highest risk of escalation into major wars, according to predictive measures developed by the institute. The other hotspots identified are Kashmir, South Sudan, Ethiopia and Eritrea, and the Democratic Republic of the Congo. All face potential annual casualties exceeding tens of thousands.
An April 2025 terror attack in Kashmir brought nuclear-armed India and Pakistan close to open war, illustrating how quickly regional tensions can escalate.
Economic toll mounts
Violence cost the global economy $19.97 trillion in 2024, equivalent to 11.6% of world GDP. Countries worst affected by conflict recorded GDP drops of up to 30% in a single year.
Global expenditure on peacekeeping has fallen to just 0.52% of total military spending—its lowest level in more than two decades—whilst conflicts have become increasingly difficult to win and expensive to wage.
Restrictive trade practices tripled to over 3,000 measures in 2023, adding to global fragmentation. China witnessed the largest increase in influence since the Cold War but appears to be plateauing, with gross debt rising to nearly 300% of GDP and foreign direct investment falling to its lowest level in 20 years.
Europe faces defence challenges
Western and Central Europe remains the most peaceful region globally, with Iceland holding the top position for the 17th consecutive year since 2008. The small island nation of 400,000 inhabitants is followed by Ireland, Austria, New Zealand and Switzerland.
Russia ranks as the world’s least peaceful country for the first time, followed by Ukraine, Sudan, the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Yemen. Europe’s military expenditure stands at almost four times Russia’s level, yet its combined military capacity is only one-third higher.
Global peacefulness has deteriorated every year since 2014, with 100 countries declining over the past decade. In 2024 alone, 87 countries deteriorated compared with 74 that improved.
Technology reshapes battlefield
Technology is fundamentally altering conflict dynamics in ways that affect regional security. Drone manufacturers surged from six in 2022 to over 200 in 2024, with Ukraine set to produce more than 2.5 million drones in 2025.
Inexpensive drones costing as little as a few hundred dollars can now neutralise military assets worth millions, fundamentally shifting the power balance between states and non-state actors. Ukrainian drone attacks have increased 127-fold since the war’s early days.
The Sahel has become the global epicentre of terrorism, with Africa Corps building its presence through major arms shipments to Mali, including tanks, armoured vehicles, artillery and planes, whilst avoiding Western sanctions as Wagner group remnants withdraw.
Sub-Saharan Africa has seen 35 of 43 nations involved in conflict over the past five years—a dramatic increase from just seven in 2008. South Asia recorded the largest deterioration in peacefulness, driven by repressive measures in Bangladesh and conflict in Pakistan.
“The concept of ‘forever wars’ is more real than at any stage in history,” said Steve Killelea, the institute’s founder and executive chairman. “This year’s Global Peace Index shows that the world is at a critical inflection point with Global Fragmentation dramatically increasing. This is driven by rising middle-level powers, major power competition, and unsustainable levels of debt burdens in the world’s most fragile countries. This is leading to a fundamental realignment and a possible tipping point to a new international order, the nature of which still can’t be fathomed.”
The United States has seen over 1,500 violent demonstrations since 2020, with rising political tensions and polarisation likely to push its ranking lower in future indices.
Some indicators showed improvement in 2024, notably criminality and homicide rates, which continued their long-term downward trends.
Conflicts have become more internationalised, with 78 countries involved in fighting beyond their borders.
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